Javier Cámara-Rica 🐝🇪🇸

1 year ago · 1 min. reading time · ~100 ·

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Labor Market Impact Potential of AI ( ChatGPT )

Labor Market Impact Potential of AI ( ChatGPT )

This study offers an examination of the potential impact of LLMs, specifically GPTs, on various occupations and industries within the economy.

This document investigates the impact of Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) models and other generative AI technologies on the labor market. Using a new rubric, the authors assess the extent to which GPT capabilities could impact various occupations, based on both human expertise and classifications from GPT-4. The study concludes that around 80% of the US workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks impacted by GPTs, while approximately 19% of workers could have at least 50% of their tasks impacted. The study also finds that the impact spans across all wage levels and is not limited to industries with higher recent productivity growth. The authors argue that the findings suggest that GPTs exhibit characteristics of general-purpose technologies and could have notable economic, social, and policy implications. The paper proposes a new rubric for understanding LLM capabilities and their potential effects on jobs to complement labor impact forecasts of technology. The authors used human annotators and GPT-4 itself as a classifier to apply this rubric to occupational data in the US economy, primarily sourced from the O*NET database. The study concludes that most occupations exhibit some degree of exposure.

Read this study: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130.pdf

Occupations with highest exposure

Group Occupations with highest exposure %c Exposure
Human a Interpreters and Translators 76.5
Survey Researchers 75.0
Poets, Lyricists and Creative Writers 68.8
Animal Scientists 66.7
Public Relations Specialists 66.7
Human 8 Survey Researchers 84.4
Writers and Authors 82.5
Interpreters and Translators 82.4
Public Relations Specialists 80.6
Animal Scientists 77.8
Human { Mathematicians 100.0
Tax Preparers 100.0
Financial Quantitative Analysts 100.0
Writers and Authors 100.0
Web and Digital Interface Designers 100.0
Humans labeled 15 occupations as "fully exposed.”
Model a Mathematicians 100.0
Correspondence Clerks 95.2
Blockchain Engineers 94.1
Court Reporters and Simultaneous Captioners 92.9
Proofreaders and Copy Markers 90.9
Model 8 Mathematicians 100.0
Blockchain Engineers 97.1
Court Reporters and Simultaneous Captioners 96.4
Proofreaders and Copy Markers 95.5
Correspondence Clerks 95.2
Model Accountants and Auditors 100.0
News Analysts, Reporters, and Journalists 100.0
Legal Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 100.0
Clinical Data Managers 100.0
Climate Change Policy Analysts 100.0
The model labeled 86 occupations as "fully exposed.”
Highest variance Search Marketing Strategists 14.5
Graphic Designers 13.4
Investment Fund Managers 13.0
Financial Managers 13.0
Insurance Appraisers, Auto Damage 12.6

Source: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130.pdf

 

Occupations without any exposed tasks

Occupations Without Any Exposed Tasks

 

Occupations with no labeled exposed tasks

 

Agricultural Equipment Operators

Athletes and Sports Competitors

Automotive Glass Installers and Repairers

Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists
Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers

Cooks, Short Order

Cutters and Trimmers, Hand

Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas

Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers
Dishwashers

Dredge Operators

Electrical Power-Line Installers and Repairers

Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining
Floor Layers, Except Carpet, Wood, and Hard Tiles

Foundry Mold and Coremakers

Helpers—Brickmasons, Blockmasons, Stonemasons, and Tile and Marble Setters
Helpers—Carpenters

Helpers—Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, and Stucco Masons
Helpers—Pipelayers, Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters
Helpers—Roofers

Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers

Motorcycle Mechanics

Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators

Pile Driver Operators

Pourers and Casters, Metal

Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators
Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons

Roof Bolters, Mining

Roustabouts, Oil and Gas

Slaughterers and Meat Packers

Stonemasons

Tapers

Tire Repairers and Changers

Wellhead Pumpers
Science and Technology
Comments

Jerry Fletcher

1 year ago #7

And so it goes. Each step in the evolution of technology is analyzed for the level of impact on humanity. Each concern, given time is either a disruptor or a minor blip. So far, AI does not have the ability to actually be creative, taking information from multiple sources and melding something new. Will it get closer to that? Possibly, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

Ken Boddie

1 year ago #5

Topical subject, Javier. While researching ChatGPT, launched in November 2022, I came across this article from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) which is well worth reading:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-24/what-is-chatgpt-how-can-it-be-detected-by-school-university/101884388 

ChatGPT can reportedly “generate text responses on any subject when prompted”. While the ABC article suggests that there are many advantages for many systems and organisations in using such AI software, it is reported that teachers and educators are concerned about the “ethical and academic implications of using AI to complete assignments”.  It's interesting that an online tool, called AICheatCheck, has already been launched, reportedly capable of detecting AI-generated material.

Interesting info in some benefits and limitations of ChatGPT is also provided on Wikipedia here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT 

It appears that our language skills and materials are about to get an AI boost, whether we like it or not, so it may well be worth while jumping onboard and finding out more about the pros and cons of programs like ChatGPT and how they may be put to optimum use in society?

Rafael García Romano

1 year ago #3

Hey everyone! I loved this study on the potential impact of generative AI technology on the labor market. It's fascinating to see that nearly 80% of the US workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by GPTs. It's also reassuring to see that some jobs might not be affected at all by this technology.

I'd love to see a more detailed breakdown of how GPTs could impact specific job tasks within each occupation. Additionally, I think it's important to consider how workers in affected occupations can reskill or adapt to new job requirements to mitigate the impact of technology on their jobs.

Does anyone have any ideas or suggestions on how people in affected jobs can prepare for the potential changes coming their way? I'd love to hear your thoughts!

Jerry Fletcher

1 year ago #1

As a marketing professional I have been observing the impact of AI on all aspects of the business. the initial reaction in the creative community of the USA was the writer's fear of being replaced and out of a job. Yes, AI can generate reams of copy in no time but it is about as creative as an empty petri dish. The spark that is missing is the human ability to combine elements of multiple disciplines and shift that content to emotional persuasiveness. A pile of facts and a lot of words helps crack through writer's block. The right words quickly convince, persuade, cajole and get results.

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